Matt Holthe's Fleeting Thoughts

The final four this year is pretty unexpected - #3 seed UConn, #4 seed Kentucky, #8 seed Butler, and #11 seed VCU. Only 1 favorite (Kentucky) covered this weekend, and the teams were under their totals 3 times out of the 4 games. Tim and I both went 2-2 in our picks this weekend. I won both on Saturday and lost both on Sunday, Tim was 1-1 each day. My picks: Butler +4 vs Florida (win) Arizona +3 vs UConn (win) VCU/Kansas over 147.5 (loss) North Carolina +1 vs Kentucky (loss) Tim's picks: Arizona/UConn over 145 (loss) Butler/Florida over 132 (win) VCU +11.5 vs Kansas (win) Kentucky/North Carolina over 146.5 (loss) In my ESPN bracket, I am at the 4.0 percentile - 5,684,575th place (I can't tell how many total brackets there are).

The NCAA Sweet 16 played out over Thursday and Friday (4 games each night). The favorites covered the spread 3 times and didn't cover 5 times. (In fact, every time the favorite didn't cover, they actually lost the game - betting the underdog money lines might have been profitable). The totals (over/under) split evenly - 4 times going over, 4 times going under. Tim was 4-4 in his picks, and I was 6-2. I am doing much better against the spread starting with the round of 32. My bracket, however, is horrible. In my ESPN bracket, I was in the 4.8 percentile this morning and I can only get worse (I cannot possibly get any more points - all my final four teams have been eliminated). In the three pools I am in, I am in last place in all of them (14th out of 14, 27th out of 27, and 3rd and 4th out of 4 brackets in the last) with no chance of overtaking the people ahead of me.

We are down to the sweet 16 now in the NCAA tournament. The favorites came back to earth yesterday, going 2-6 against the spread. Totals split evenly - 4 over and 4 under. For the first 52 games of the tournament, favorites are 25-26-1. There have been 23 games over the total, 26 games under, with 3 pushes. As usual, Vegas is pretty well 50/50 in their lines and totals - it's a matter of being able to predict that will get you money. Speaking of money, I had another great day yesterday. 7-1 against the spread. Tim continued his woes, going 1-7 ATS. For the first 52 games, I am 28-22-2 (56%) and Tim is 21-30-1 (41%).

There was 1 game that could sum up the overall picks for Tim and I yesterday. I had San Diego St to cover the 6 point spread, and Tim had under 125.5 total points. At the end of the first overtime, the score was 61-61 (122 total points). So, if either team had won the game during regulation or during the first overtime (even with a last second three-pointer), I would have lost and Tim would have won. As it turned out, the second overtime saw San Diego St score 10 points to Temple's 3 points. The final was 71-64, which meant that I won my bet and Tim lost his bet. That's very similar to the 2003 Arizona/Gonzaga game in the round of 32. I was in Vegas and had a bet on the under for that game and they finally went over in the second overtime. Although I'm wondering now if my memory is failing me with that game. I just looked it up and the game was tied at 78 at the end of regulation and tied at 89 at the end of the first overtime. That would mean that Vegas had the total at so...

Tim and I picked all the lines and totals again today. Again, we alternated making picks. You could pick any game and either the line or the total. We ended up with 2 games each where we picked both the line and total. It seems that every time that happens it's a split - you win one and lose one. I had a better day today. I was 9-7 today. Tim was right at the 50/50 mark - he was 8-8. Overall, it was not the day for the chalk. Favorites were 4-12 against the spread. There were 4 games that went over, 11 that went under, and 1 push. If you wonder why there was a push overall but Tim and I didn't have a push, it's because I picked the game before the line changed. I had Illinois/UNLV over 132. At tip-off the total was 135. The final was 73-62 (135 points), so I won that pick but for the "overall" I take the game-time lines/totals, so it was a push.

Some real exciting games today - more in the morning with several close games than in the evening. 5 of the first 7 games were decided by 3 points or less (1 by 3 points, 3 by 2 points, and 1 by 1 point). Overall there were 5 games decided by 1 or 2 points, which tied for the most in a single NCAA tournament day in history. Picks against the spread, however, left a lot to be desired. I went 4-12 for the day and Tim went 7-8-1. In my defense, two of my losses were by a half point each. Both times the tip-off line moved a point against me and if I would have gotten the tip-off line I would have won. That's some bad luck! (I picked Bucknell/UConn under 132.5; at tip the total was 133.5; the final was 81-52, which is 133 points. The other game was BYU -8.5; at the tip it was BYU -7.5; they won by 8, 74-66). Overall, favorites were 10-6 and 8 of the 16 games went over, 7 went under, with 1 total push (Richmond/Vanderbilt landed right on 135 points).

Tim and I picked the NCAA first four games (new in 2011), both the lines and the totals. We alternated - pick the line, then the other picks the total, then switch. My picks: UNC Asheville -4 vs Arkansas Little-Rock (push) UAB/Clemson under 122 (push) Texas San Antonio -4 vs Alabama St (win) USC/VCU under 127.5 (win) So I was 2-0-2 Tim's picks: UNC Asheville/Ark Little-Rock over 130 (win) Clemson -4.5 vs UAB (win) Tex San Antonio/Alabama St under 128.5 (loss) VCU +4.5 vs USC (win) Tim was 3-1 That means we tied head-to-head for the first four games.

I run a web site that does a lot with college basketball, including having brackets for the conference tournaments and the post season tournaments. There are a lot of different conference tournament brackets (12 teams, 11 teams, 10 teams, brackets where teams get byes into the semi-finals, the 16 team Big East bracket with 2 types of byes, and so on). There's also different post season (NCAA regional, NIT, and so on). Last year there was a new post season tournament added. It's called the College Insider Tournament (C.I.T.). The setup was a 16-team tournament where teams were re-seeded after every round. That allowed for geographical efficiencies with the scheduling (so a team wouldn't have to go cross-country unless there was no other option). That was a brand new type of bracket (16 team with no real bracket until after a round was over). So I had to code a whole new type of tournament for that last year. This year, the C.I.T. changed again. Now it is a 24 team tournament...

As a follow-up to Picking 87 games , Tim and I picked both the lines and totals in the four games yesterday (selection Sunday). We started with me picking both the line and total of the first game, then Tim picking both for the second game, and so on. I picked Dayton +4.5 vs Richmond, over 125.5 - Richmond won 67-54, so I lost both. Tim picked North Carolina +3.5 vs Duke, over 146.5 - Duke won 75-58, so Tim lost both. I picked Kentucky +2 vs Florida, over 137.5 - Kentucky won 70-54, so I split (one win, one loss). Tim picked Penn St +10 vs Ohio St, under 127 - Ohio St won 71-60, so Tim lost both. That's 1-7 for the 8 total picks between the two of us. Glad we weren't in Vegas for those picks!

My friend Tim and I picked 87 NCAA basketball games against the spread on Saturday. We alternated picks - first I would pick one, then he would pick one. Once a pick was made, the other person was automatically the "house" for that pick (meaning, you automatically had to take the other side). The way the picks were made, you wanted to make the ones you were most confident about early (before the other person had a chance to pick it). We made the picks in 3 waves - morning games, afternoon games, and night games. There were 24 morning games, 35 afternoon games, and 28 night games based on our breakdowns. In the morning games, Tim was 4-7-1 and I was 8-4. Our "top half" (picks 1 through 6 for this set) were both 2-4, however. That means I was 6-0 in the games lower down the list (ones I was basically guessing). In the afternoon games, Tim was 8-10 and I was 6-11. Our "top half" (1-9) picks were both 2-7. Again, we did better on the ones where we were guessin...