Matt Holthe's Fleeting Thoughts

No fault of my own - just no requests have come in for the last month, and next month is going to be dry again as well. I am going to be working remotely on a Redbook Wiki, which means I won't travel unless an emergency comes up. I still need 22 segments on American for my Platinum status in 2012. Luckily, I get 4 segments every trip I take (I have to connect through Dallas or Chicago every time). So that means I need 6 trips over the last 4 months of the year - that should be possible. Hilton will take some trick-er-ation on my part. I need 12 stays. If I'm doing 6 trips, I can switch hotels on every trip (for example, stay in Chicago overnight on the way home). I basically will need to stay at 2 different Hilton hotels on each trip. I highly doubt I would have 12 different trips over the last 4 months of the year to just stay at 1 hotel per trip.

This game opened up in March of this year, but I hadn't heard about it until now. It's called 3 dice football and only available at O'Shea's: http://lasvegasblog.harrahs.com/gaming/3-dice-football-debuts-at-osheas-las-vegas/ The full details of the game are available here: http://www.tcsjohnhuxley.com/de/live-gaming/table-games-worldwide-games/3-dice-football.html It looks like the "Touchdown" bet has a house advantage of 3.6%. And there's a couple prop bets that aren't too bad - the "no gain" bet on a single play has an advantage of 2.8% and the "cover 3" on a single play has an advantage of 3.7%. And the "under 4 yards" is 2.8% with "over 4 yards" at 4.6%. That is assuming that the creator of the game did the math right (I would assume he did) The mathematical analysis is found here: http://www.tcsjohnhuxley.com/images/stories/PDF/3_dice_football_cis_05.11_v4.1_144dpi.pdf If I ever make another trip to Vegas, I...

I just got accepted to work on a Redbook Wiki: Domino Development Best Practices, LO-1W03-R01 Here's the abstract: This new Lotus wiki deliverable will create a Lotus wiki about Domino Development Best Practices. This wiki will cover everything needed to build application, regardless of client, and general practices to make development easier, less buggy, and easy to support changes. The best practices will not be version-specific, lending itself well to a longer "shelf life" for this deliverable. It's projected to be 20 hours per week for 5 weeks, starting 2 weeks from Monday (August 8). I'm very excited about the opportunity. I've been published in trade magazines before, but not for a while now (for at least a few years) and I've been itching to get back into the "professional writing" game.

Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio was ripping into Rory McIlroy after the British Open, saying "was Tiger doing such and such?". Well, he's comparing Rory at 22 to Tiger at 25 or 26. So I decided to do an apples to apples comparison. Rory was born May 4, 1989. That means that as of this past weekend's British Open he has played 2 majors after turning 22 years old. Tiger was born December 30, 1975. So he turned 22 on 12/30/97. That makes the 1998 US Open Tiger's 2nd major after turning 22 years old. Tiger played in 6 majors as an amateur: 1995 Masters - T41 1995 US Open - withdrew 1995 British Open - T68 1996 Masters - missed cut 1996 US Open - T82 1996 British Open - T22 Tiger's professional results up to and including the 1998 US Open: 1997 Masters - win 1997 US Open - T19 1997 British Open - T24 1997 PGA Championship - T29 1998 Masters - T8 1998 US Open - T18 That's 1 win, 2 top 10's, and 4 top 20's. Rory has also played in 12 majors, but only 1 as an ...

It's been a long last couple of weeks. The week of July 4th my wife, daughter, and I went on vacation to Wisconsin Dells. That was a pretty good choice for someone who just turned 2 - the water parks up there were a good choice. Then my Mom passed away on July 7. The funeral was Monday the 11th and I took the day off on the 12th. I was back at work Wednesday through Friday last week, but honestly wasn't all that productive. I'm finally getting back into the swing of things today and hopefully can get some development work done and some prep work for taking a certification exam.

The second quarter of 2011 is in the books. Am I half way to keeping my Platinum American status and Diamond Hilton status? To maintain my Platinum status on American Airlines, I need to fly 60 segments or 50,000 miles. The miles will always be difficult to get since almost all my travel is inside the United States. So far this year I have 24,340 miles (48.7% of the way there), but I have 38 segments (63.3% of the way there). So I'm looking good for Platinum status. For Hilton Diamond, I need 28 stays (a check-in/check-out at a hotel) or 60 nights to maintain my status. I haven't been able to stay exclusively at Hilton properties for every one of my trips (proximity to customer, lack of available hotels, etc). But I have managed 25 nights (41.7% of the way there) in 16 stays (57.1% of the way there). I'm looking all right based on number of stays to maintain my Hilton status. I think my travel is going to slow down for a little while, so my pace for the first half of the ye...

On my flight home yesterday, I was thinking about the states I've golfed in compared to the states I've gambled in. Before even listing out the states, I knew that I've gambled in more states than I've golfed in. There's a few reasons for that: You don't need to bring along any equipment (like clubs) to gamble - makes it easier when traveling After a full day of work, you can go to a casino for an hour or two when the sun is down - can't do that with golf Although you can do either as a single, going to a casino is a bit easier So I started listing all the states I've golfed in and gambled in during my life. From what I can remember, I have played golf in the following 7 states: Illinois (several cities), Colorado (4 cities), Michigan (1 trip, several rounds), Mississippi (1 trip, several rounds), Alabama (1 trip, several rounds), Arizona (once), and Minnesota (once). I have gambled in the following 13 states: Illinois (a few casinos plus off-track horse...

The Dallas Mavericks beat the Miami Heat 4 games to 2 and won the NBA Championship last night. Before the series, I was rooting for Dallas but didn't honestly think they could win. After Miami won game 1, I really didn't think there was much hope for Dallas. I didn't watch much of the series - a little bit here and there was all. So I can't really comment on the series.

I found this document from the NOAA web site that ranks cities based on the percent annual possible sunshine. Las Vegas is third on the list with the sun shining 85% of the time. Phoenix is at 85% as well. Denver is 30th on the list with 69%. Bloomington, IL isn't listed, but Peoria (45 mins away, for those that don't know) is. They are 124 on the list at 56%.

Just counting home games, Illinois was tenth in attendance at 15,851 per game. Kentucky was first at 23,603 per game. If you count all games (home, road, neutral) then was one of 12 schools (including BYU) who had over a half a million people watch them (505,094 total, just ahead of Duke). Kentucky also lead in that category at 755,748. Colorado was 77th at 7,014 per game. Colorado St was 4,879, but posted the eighth highest increase in attendance from 2010, going up 1,487 per game. BYU was tops in that category, going up 4,685 per game to 18,714. Denver University was tenth in that same category, going up 1,409 per game to 3,388. The Big Ten had the highest average attendance at 12,826 per game. The Mountain West set an attendance record with 1,322,705 fans and was sixth in the nation. The Big 12 was fourth in the nation, but their attendance dropped to 10,716 per game. For the conference tournaments, the ACC was tops with 23,381 per game. For the NCAA tournament, Cleveland had the hi...

Tim and I ended up picking all 67 games in the NCAA tournament. We didn't each all pick all the lines and totals, but alternated all the time as I've described in my earlier posts. So we each had 67 picks made (67 lines, 67 totals). I started out 6-12-2, but ended up 37-28-2, which is a respectable 56.7% Tim ended up 29-37-1, which is 44.03% Looking at tip-time lines and totals, for the entire tournament favorites were 31-35-1. Out of the 67 games, 28 went over, 36 went under, and there were 3 pushes. If you had blindly picked the under on every game, you would have won almost 56% of the time, so you would have made a little bit of money (or come close to even after the vig).

Saturday morning, I sent Tim a text saying that I didn't like any of the available bets for the Final Four. But since we had picked every game so far, there was no stopping now. I started and picked Kentucky/Connecticut over 140. That was a loss. Tim then picked VCU/Butler under 134. That was a win. Then I picked VCU +2.5 against Butler. That was a loss, so I went 0-2. Finally, Tim picked Kentucky -2 against Connecticut. That was a loss, so Tim went 1-1. For the national championship game, Tim started with Connecticut -3.5. He won that. Then I picked Butler/Connecticut under 129.5. I won that. For the final four, I was 1-2 and Tim was 2-1.

Well, it's April Fools Day. A quarter of the year is complete. Time to see how I'm doing towards keeping my Hilton Diamond and American Airlines Platinum status for another year. Hilton Diamond: I need 28 stays or 60 nights to maintain my status for next year. So far I have 7 stays and 12 nights. I'm right on pace (but with no room to spare) for the stays, and behind on the nights. I think I'll need to pick it up a bit in the future quarters. American Airlines Platinum I need 60 segments or 50,000 miles to maintain my status for next year. There is little chance I'll reach that miles total since I don't do any long trips (nothing overseas). 60 segments is what I shoot for. I have 19 segments so far this year, which is a good pace. I have a bit of room to spare, but I can't slack off. I have 11,043 miles toward my platinum status.

The final four this year is pretty unexpected - #3 seed UConn, #4 seed Kentucky, #8 seed Butler, and #11 seed VCU. Only 1 favorite (Kentucky) covered this weekend, and the teams were under their totals 3 times out of the 4 games. Tim and I both went 2-2 in our picks this weekend. I won both on Saturday and lost both on Sunday, Tim was 1-1 each day. My picks: Butler +4 vs Florida (win) Arizona +3 vs UConn (win) VCU/Kansas over 147.5 (loss) North Carolina +1 vs Kentucky (loss) Tim's picks: Arizona/UConn over 145 (loss) Butler/Florida over 132 (win) VCU +11.5 vs Kansas (win) Kentucky/North Carolina over 146.5 (loss) In my ESPN bracket, I am at the 4.0 percentile - 5,684,575th place (I can't tell how many total brackets there are).

The NCAA Sweet 16 played out over Thursday and Friday (4 games each night). The favorites covered the spread 3 times and didn't cover 5 times. (In fact, every time the favorite didn't cover, they actually lost the game - betting the underdog money lines might have been profitable). The totals (over/under) split evenly - 4 times going over, 4 times going under. Tim was 4-4 in his picks, and I was 6-2. I am doing much better against the spread starting with the round of 32. My bracket, however, is horrible. In my ESPN bracket, I was in the 4.8 percentile this morning and I can only get worse (I cannot possibly get any more points - all my final four teams have been eliminated). In the three pools I am in, I am in last place in all of them (14th out of 14, 27th out of 27, and 3rd and 4th out of 4 brackets in the last) with no chance of overtaking the people ahead of me.

We are down to the sweet 16 now in the NCAA tournament. The favorites came back to earth yesterday, going 2-6 against the spread. Totals split evenly - 4 over and 4 under. For the first 52 games of the tournament, favorites are 25-26-1. There have been 23 games over the total, 26 games under, with 3 pushes. As usual, Vegas is pretty well 50/50 in their lines and totals - it's a matter of being able to predict that will get you money. Speaking of money, I had another great day yesterday. 7-1 against the spread. Tim continued his woes, going 1-7 ATS. For the first 52 games, I am 28-22-2 (56%) and Tim is 21-30-1 (41%).

There was 1 game that could sum up the overall picks for Tim and I yesterday. I had San Diego St to cover the 6 point spread, and Tim had under 125.5 total points. At the end of the first overtime, the score was 61-61 (122 total points). So, if either team had won the game during regulation or during the first overtime (even with a last second three-pointer), I would have lost and Tim would have won. As it turned out, the second overtime saw San Diego St score 10 points to Temple's 3 points. The final was 71-64, which meant that I won my bet and Tim lost his bet. That's very similar to the 2003 Arizona/Gonzaga game in the round of 32. I was in Vegas and had a bet on the under for that game and they finally went over in the second overtime. Although I'm wondering now if my memory is failing me with that game. I just looked it up and the game was tied at 78 at the end of regulation and tied at 89 at the end of the first overtime. That would mean that Vegas had the total at so...

Tim and I picked all the lines and totals again today. Again, we alternated making picks. You could pick any game and either the line or the total. We ended up with 2 games each where we picked both the line and total. It seems that every time that happens it's a split - you win one and lose one. I had a better day today. I was 9-7 today. Tim was right at the 50/50 mark - he was 8-8. Overall, it was not the day for the chalk. Favorites were 4-12 against the spread. There were 4 games that went over, 11 that went under, and 1 push. If you wonder why there was a push overall but Tim and I didn't have a push, it's because I picked the game before the line changed. I had Illinois/UNLV over 132. At tip-off the total was 135. The final was 73-62 (135 points), so I won that pick but for the "overall" I take the game-time lines/totals, so it was a push.

Some real exciting games today - more in the morning with several close games than in the evening. 5 of the first 7 games were decided by 3 points or less (1 by 3 points, 3 by 2 points, and 1 by 1 point). Overall there were 5 games decided by 1 or 2 points, which tied for the most in a single NCAA tournament day in history. Picks against the spread, however, left a lot to be desired. I went 4-12 for the day and Tim went 7-8-1. In my defense, two of my losses were by a half point each. Both times the tip-off line moved a point against me and if I would have gotten the tip-off line I would have won. That's some bad luck! (I picked Bucknell/UConn under 132.5; at tip the total was 133.5; the final was 81-52, which is 133 points. The other game was BYU -8.5; at the tip it was BYU -7.5; they won by 8, 74-66). Overall, favorites were 10-6 and 8 of the 16 games went over, 7 went under, with 1 total push (Richmond/Vanderbilt landed right on 135 points).

Tim and I picked the NCAA first four games (new in 2011), both the lines and the totals. We alternated - pick the line, then the other picks the total, then switch. My picks: UNC Asheville -4 vs Arkansas Little-Rock (push) UAB/Clemson under 122 (push) Texas San Antonio -4 vs Alabama St (win) USC/VCU under 127.5 (win) So I was 2-0-2 Tim's picks: UNC Asheville/Ark Little-Rock over 130 (win) Clemson -4.5 vs UAB (win) Tex San Antonio/Alabama St under 128.5 (loss) VCU +4.5 vs USC (win) Tim was 3-1 That means we tied head-to-head for the first four games.