How to get to 1000 wins
I was thinking of how hard it would be for a college coach to get to 1000 wins. For someone starting out today, here's how I think it would be possible:
First, you would have to start out with a point guard who is good enough to play, but not good enough to go pro, and is interested in coaching. Kind of like Chester Frazier.
Next, after that player graduates, he becomes an assistant coach with a high profile team (meaning, a team that's on TV a lot, like Duke). That will give him a lot of exposure in a short amount of time.
After 2 or 3 years as an assistant, someone at a low-major college gives him a chance. Like maybe in the Southern Conference or the MAAC or the Sun Belt. He's a coach at age 25 or so.
Next, he begins to dominate that league and build up a lot of wins. You could get 14 or so conference wins per year and some out of conference, and the conference tournament. He doesn't have to win the league every year, but has to be in contention. This would amount to 20 to 25 wins fairly regularly, and close to 20 on the years he doesn't get there.
Since he's at a low major college, he doesn't get a lot of looks from higher programs even though he's winning. The ones that do give him a look are the bottom feeder programs of the high major conferences and this guy isn't interested in doing that. So he stays at the smaller conference for 9 years or so and builds up around 200 wins.
After 9 years something opens up at a mid-major college like in the Missouri Valley or Conference USA or WAC. It may take a few years, but he turns that program into the next Butler or Gonzaga - a high major program playing in a mid major conference. This kind of program can again get 20 to 25 wins most every year the same way (14 in conference, 10 out of conference). But the difference here is that they win some games in the NCAA tournament and get some "gimmie" games in the non-conference schedule that the smaller school couldn't.
The mid-major school is smart and gives the guy a long term contract and the coach (gasp) actually observes the contract. After 10 years or so on the job, he's at nearly 250 wins.
Now the coach is around 45 years of age and has somewhere around 450 wins.
Next, the perfect storm opens up. Kind of like this year with Arizona. A coach retires or something else and the program is not in disarray - not the Indiana situation. The coach goes there and immediately cranks out 20 win seasons. But this time he's at a high major program - 30 win seasons are a possibility. He wins a national championship (or gets to the championship game) a couple of times, maybe another final four or two. He "consistently" gets to the final four/championship game (at least once a decade) to keep the wolves at bay (not like Maryland) and just about every year is in the NCAA tournament and winning a game or two.
A coach like that (Coach K, Super Roy, Bill $elf, etc) can "easily" (not that I think it's easy, but you know what I mean) rack up 300 wins in 12 years. We're up to around 750 wins and the coach is 57 years old. He can easily be coaching another 11 years (250 more wins) to get to 1000 before he turns 70.
That's the way I see it. If the coach gets to the high major program too early, he misses out on some 20+ win seasons or gets fired before he has a chance to pad the win total. If he stays in the lower or mid major program, he can't get the 30+ win seasons to get closer more quickly.
First, you would have to start out with a point guard who is good enough to play, but not good enough to go pro, and is interested in coaching. Kind of like Chester Frazier.
Next, after that player graduates, he becomes an assistant coach with a high profile team (meaning, a team that's on TV a lot, like Duke). That will give him a lot of exposure in a short amount of time.
After 2 or 3 years as an assistant, someone at a low-major college gives him a chance. Like maybe in the Southern Conference or the MAAC or the Sun Belt. He's a coach at age 25 or so.
Next, he begins to dominate that league and build up a lot of wins. You could get 14 or so conference wins per year and some out of conference, and the conference tournament. He doesn't have to win the league every year, but has to be in contention. This would amount to 20 to 25 wins fairly regularly, and close to 20 on the years he doesn't get there.
Since he's at a low major college, he doesn't get a lot of looks from higher programs even though he's winning. The ones that do give him a look are the bottom feeder programs of the high major conferences and this guy isn't interested in doing that. So he stays at the smaller conference for 9 years or so and builds up around 200 wins.
After 9 years something opens up at a mid-major college like in the Missouri Valley or Conference USA or WAC. It may take a few years, but he turns that program into the next Butler or Gonzaga - a high major program playing in a mid major conference. This kind of program can again get 20 to 25 wins most every year the same way (14 in conference, 10 out of conference). But the difference here is that they win some games in the NCAA tournament and get some "gimmie" games in the non-conference schedule that the smaller school couldn't.
The mid-major school is smart and gives the guy a long term contract and the coach (gasp) actually observes the contract. After 10 years or so on the job, he's at nearly 250 wins.
Now the coach is around 45 years of age and has somewhere around 450 wins.
Next, the perfect storm opens up. Kind of like this year with Arizona. A coach retires or something else and the program is not in disarray - not the Indiana situation. The coach goes there and immediately cranks out 20 win seasons. But this time he's at a high major program - 30 win seasons are a possibility. He wins a national championship (or gets to the championship game) a couple of times, maybe another final four or two. He "consistently" gets to the final four/championship game (at least once a decade) to keep the wolves at bay (not like Maryland) and just about every year is in the NCAA tournament and winning a game or two.
A coach like that (Coach K, Super Roy, Bill $elf, etc) can "easily" (not that I think it's easy, but you know what I mean) rack up 300 wins in 12 years. We're up to around 750 wins and the coach is 57 years old. He can easily be coaching another 11 years (250 more wins) to get to 1000 before he turns 70.
That's the way I see it. If the coach gets to the high major program too early, he misses out on some 20+ win seasons or gets fired before he has a chance to pad the win total. If he stays in the lower or mid major program, he can't get the 30+ win seasons to get closer more quickly.
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