Matt Holthe's Fleeting Thoughts

We are getting our front yard re-done. The soil is horrible - it was never prepped correctly when it was first done. (It was done by the builder, so we didn't expect anything spectacular, but it took us several years to get sick of it). Here's the lawn after the tear-up. Some of the plants are in. Tomorrow we'll get the new sod.

Vegas would like to see Orlando against Los Angeles, with LA winning. Here's part of an article from covers.com (link to full article below) which talks about where the money is: Bookmakers from Nevada and online outlets alike are hoping the Magic and Lakers can finish the job. They received a ton of action on the Cavaliers to win the NBA Finals and the Eastern Conference Finals, even at prices anywhere from -700 to -900. The action remained heavy on Cleveland even after the price dropped to the -250 to -275 range. On the flip side, many bets are on the books for the Nuggets, who have been generating heavy action ever since their dominant first-round disposal of the New Orleans Hornets. "People have been coming out of the woodwork to bet on the Nuggets," said senior oddsmaker Shane Catford of BetCRIS.com. "They have been betting them to win the series, win the NBA Finals... everything. We need the Lakers to survive and we need the Nuggets out." Jay Kornegay, exe...

AP News story that I pulled off excite.com: May 24, 4:08 PM (ET) ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) - Saturday was a record-setting night for a novice craps player at an Atlantic City casino. Patricia Demauro set a new record for the longest craps roll, hanging on for four hours and 18 minutes at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa. Borgata officials say she beat the previous record by one hour and 12 minutes. They say Stanley Fujitake of Honolulu, set that record nearly 20 years ago in Las Vegas. "This was only my second time playing craps, so this was very exciting for me to be a part of history," says Demauro, who lives in Denville in northern New Jersey. Demauro bought into a game for $100 and quickly amassed a cheering crowd. When she finally lost around 12:31 a.m., after 154 rolls of the dice, she was greeted by Borgata with a champagne toast. The casino wouldn't say how much Demauro won. link to source article Doing some math, 4:18 is 258 minutes. 154 rolls in 258 minutes is ...

I watched just about every inning of the last 4 games and have seen them score a grand total of 2 runs. The offense is offensive right now. And, to make matters worse, three of the 5 consecutive losses have been to the Cardinals. They are now in fourth place in the NL Central, behind Milwaukee, St Louis, and Cincinnati. They are 21-19 at about the quarter-mark through the season.

... or at least be on twitter following people. United airlines will post short-time air fare sales via twitter. Limited time only offers. More details here . To follow United on Twitter, first have a twitter account and then go to the United page .

Here's something you don't see every day: It makes sense for me to follow Monte Carlo and get updates on events and deals and such, but for a corporation to follow an individual? Guess it's nice and all, but I really don't have that much to say....

A few years back, I signed up for Harrah's rewards program. There's no Harrah's in Colorado, but I made enough trips to Las Vegas, so I signed up. After doing some research, there are some things I don't like about the Harrah's reward program. Reward points expire after 6 months. Since there's no Harrah's in Colorado, I would have to fly somewhere at least once every six months to keep my points going. It should be at least a year if not longer. You get one point for every $5 coin-in with slots and every $10 coin-in with video poker. Twice as much for video poker? I know the odds are better with video poker (which is why I play that) but that's a huge difference. They don't have information for all Vegas casinos posted, but the quickest return is $10 Java Coast (at the Flamingo) credit. That is 1000 points. Meaning I have to put $10,000 into a video poker machine in order to get $10 credit at a coffee shop. The cheapest buffet in Vegas I saw was the ...

Today is May 19. Our due date for our first child is June 19. So we officially are into the last month. We're very excited, but still have much to do to prepare (the house, ourselves, etc.) If you want to get an update on the delivery follow me on twitter. I don't know how much I'll be posting, but I'll at least send a message when we're going to the hospital. My twitter page is http://twitter.com/mattholthe

I went through an exercise of writing down where I have been for March Madness after moving out to Colorado (April, 2000). After graduating college, and prior to moving out to Colorado, I was in Bloomington, IL. I simply watched the games at one of the local sports bars in town every year (with one exception - 1998 when I was on vacation in Lake Tahoe and actually watched Illinois State beat Tennessee and Illinois beat South Alabama). I went to Las Vegas 4 times (years listed in bold ) in the 9 years out here. Here is what I have done after moving: 2001 - my buddy Tim came from Illinois to Colorado and we watched the games out here at a couple of places. This was the year that #15 Hampton beat #2 Iowa State, but we didn't see the end - it was the last game of the night and we thought the game was over and were pretty lit from drinking beers all day and wanted to make sure we didn't miss the bus back home. 2002 - I went back to Illinois to watch the games in Bloomington. Sou...

From ESPN ... The Delaware Senate voted in favor of Governor Jack Markell's proposal to legalize sports betting in the state on Tuesday by a vote of 17-2. Markell is expected to sign the bill into law later this week. "It's time to move forward and ensure the Delaware Sports Lottery is a success," Markell said after the vote. "This will generate critical revenue to help fund our core commitments." Delaware is one of only four states in the country -- along with Nevada, Oregon and Montana -- that had sports betting laws on its books when Congress passed the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, which banned states from being in the bookmaking business. Markell, whose state is facing a nearly $800 million budget deficit, hopes that bringing sports betting to his state will generate more than $50 million in the first year alone. Delaware had a sports lottery -- basically parlay betting -- for one football season, back in 1976. It failed miserably...

For years I thought Benjamin Franklin said "Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." I even kept the quote out because if we ever finished the basement and made a bar down there, I was going to put that quote up behind the bar. But reading Reader's Digest this month, I found out that he actually didn't say that. What he did say was about wine: "We hear of the conversion of water into wine at the marriage in Cana as of a miracle, but this conversion is, through the goodness of God, made every day before our eyes. Behold the rain which descends from heaven upon our vineyards; there it enters the roots of the vines, to be changed into wine - a constant proof that God loves us, and loves to see us happy." What a disappointment... Maybe I'll still use that quote and put "Ben Franklin did NOT say..." in front of it.

In addition to my series on attractions ( free and low-cost ) and shows , I thought I'd post something about some of the restaurants in Las Vegas I've been to and would like to go to. This will be more of a review than the other postings. Note that I don't include big chains like California Pizza Kitchen, Outback, ESPN Zone, etc., that I've been to. And I also don't include reviews of any of the buffets here - these are sit-down restaurants only. Chinois was good food. It wouldn't be high on my list to visit again (I'd rather go to somewhere new) CUT I've never been there but heard this is a great steak place Pampas Brazilian Grille go there for lunch (cheaper) and it's well worth the price Sushi Roku it's sushi, so it's expensive, but very good In-N-Out although not really a sit-down restaurant, a must-go if you've never been to one. Although not necessary, it's a lot more fun if you know the secret menu before you go. Jimmy B...

I'm going to have a series of quick posts concerning things to do in Las Vegas. I started out with free attractions , then went to low-cost attractions and this one finishes the series with shows. I haven't been to enough night clubs or bars to post anything in that area. For each posting, I won't include too many details on each entry but will include links to the vegas.com web site where you can get more information. I will group entries into items that I have seen before and wouldn't mind seeing again (sorted by desire to see again), then items that I've seen before and don't really have a desire to see again (at least for a while) - kind of a "been there, done that" group, and finally a group of items that I haven't seen before (sorted by desire to see once at least). Note that I only talk about recurring shows - I don't include when I went to see Ray Romano or Bill Engvall, etc.. Because there are so many shows in Las Vegas, for the ...

I'm going to have a series of quick posts concerning things to do in Las Vegas. I started out with free attractions , this one is for low-cost attractions and I'll conclude with one about shows. I haven't been to enough night clubs or bars to post anything in that area. For each posting, I won't include too many details on each entry but will include links to the vegas.com web site where you can get more information. I will group entries into items that I have seen before and wouldn't mind seeing again (sorted by desire to see again), then items that I've seen before and don't really have a desire to see again (at least for a while) - kind of a "been there, done that" group, and finally a group of items that I haven't seen before (sorted by desire to see once at least). Low cost attractions in Las Vegas which I've seen before and don't mind seeing again: The Eiffel Tower Experience Speed - The Ride at the Sahara Gondola Ride at the Vene...

I got a marketing email from Club Grazie (Venetian and Palazzo hotels in Las Vegas) with the following offer: Two to four nights at the Ventian or Palazzo (all suite hotels) Two tickets to Phantom of the Opera $25 in slot credit or table match play Wow. I assume that the range of nights is depending on when I want to be there (4 nights if they are all weekday nights, for example). But, still, that's an offer that's hard to turn down. But we're expecting our first child in six weeks, so it's not a very good time to fly off to Vegas for a couple nights. I'm going to have to turn down this offer, unfortunately.

One of the side bets you can play at several casinos in Black Hawk is called "streak". This is a bet where you get paid if you win that many hands in a row (2, 3, 4, or 5). How much is the casino advantage on this game? Well, it all depends on the payout. There are several factors in play, but as a general rule you can assume that the odds of winning one hand in blackjack streak is 47.51% (or .4751) - thanks to Wizard of Odds for that. So the odds of winning "x" hands in a row are .4751^x, which is .22572 for 2 hands, .1072396 for 3 hands, .0509495 for 4 hands, and .0242061 for 5 hands. If you take that number, multiply by the amount you get if you win a streak of that size, and then subtract from 1, you will get the casino advantage. A typical streak pay scale is 3, 8, 18, and 38. So, for a streak of 2, the casino advantage is 1-(.22572*4)=0.09712 (9.71%). For a streak of 3, it's 3.48%. For 4, it's 3.196%. For 5, it's 5.596%. So the best bets are strea...

I'm going to have a series of quick posts concerning things to do in Las Vegas. I'll start out with free attractions, then go to low-cost attractions and I'll conclude with one about shows. I haven't been to enough night clubs or bars to post anything in that area. For each posting, I won't include too many details on each entry but will include links to the vegas.com web site where you can get more information. I will group entries into items that I have seen before and wouldn't mind seeing again (sorted by desire to see again), then items that I've seen before and don't really have a desire to see again (at least for a while) - kind of a "been there, done that" group, and finally a group of items that I haven't seen before (sorted by desire to see once at least). Free attractions in Las Vegas which I've seen before and don't mind seeing again: Mirage volcano - I haven't seen it since it reopend Fountains at Bellagio Fremont S...

Very interesting. According to the Wizard of Odds web site, using a continuous shuffling machine (CSM) actually lowers the house advantage. A CSM is a machine next to the dealer that continually shuffles the desk. The dealer, every couple hands or so, puts the discarded hands back into the shuffler. Since I'm not a card counter, a CSM didn't bother me too much. The casinos like them because they increase the number of hands per hour quite a bit (so the casinos have more of a chance to take your money). Even though the house edge is decreased, it's only slight and more than offset by the increase in hands/hour.

Here's the information on how the expected value was computed for the How would you play this hand? posting. It's a lot less complicated talking about keeping both the 7's and the 3's, so let's start there. If you keep those 4 cards, then there are only 47 possible outcomes. You start out with a deck of 52 cards, but the 5 you see - two 7's, two 3's, and the king - are already used. That leaves 47 cards to fill in that spot of the card you didn't hold. Out of those 47 cards, there are two 7's remaining, two 3's remaining, and four 2's remaining. That's 8 cards that would give you a full house. The expected value is the odds of getting that full house (which is 8 divided by 47) times the payout (which is a variable in our case). If the payout is 3, then the expected value is 8*3/47 = 0.5106 and for a payout of 4 it is 8*4/47 = 0.6809 Keeping just the 7's is a lot more complicated. There are now 3 cards that will be filled in by using ...

I read about this in Casino Player this month.... Here's an interesting scenario in deuces wild video poker. For deuces wild, you don't get any payback unless you get at least three-of-a-kind, but remember that 2's are wild. Let's say you have the following hand: What should you keep? According to the card I use from wizardofodds.com , you should keep one of the two pairs, and it doesn't matter which. However, that isn't exactly the full story. It actually depends on the pay scale. Let's say that three-of-a-kind pays 1, a full house pays 3, four-of-a-kind pays 5, and five-of-a-kind pays 15 (that's a pretty typical pay scale). The expected value of keeping just the pair of 7's is 0.5811 (you're expected to lose around 42 cents from every dollar) and the expected value of keeping both the 7's and the 3's is 0.5106, so it's best to keep just the 7's like the card says. (Keeping the 3's is exactly the same as keeping the 7's)....

This month's Casino Player magazine has lots of good information, and I'll be posting some of it over the upcoming days. In blackjack, here are the rules for playing a 16 against a dealer's 10 up card. If you have a 10 and 6 or a 9 and 7, surrender if you can. If you can't surrender (not allowed), then hit. If you have a pair of 8's, then split them. If you happen to draw another 8 on the split (so you again have 16) and you can't resplit (not allowed), then stand. If you get a 16 after three or more cards (e.g. you start out with a 4-8 and then hit and get a 4), then stand. If you have a soft 16 (e.g. Ace-5 or 3-Ace-2) then hit. I always had a "gut feeling" about that third one - the "card" (see wizardofodds.com for an example) says to hit a hard 16 against a 10, but the card also doesn't differentiate between a two-card 16 and a three-card 16. I didn't know if it made a difference or not, but most of the time I would stand on a thr...

Wow, what a series this has been. I don't watch a lot of NBA, but last night I started watching the game near the end of the 3rd quarter and ended up watching 2 hours of basketball. Game 1 - at Boston - Chicago 105, Boston 103 (OT) Game 2 - at Boston - Boston 118, Chicago 115 Game 3 - at Chicago - Boston 107, Chicago 86 Game 4 - at Chicago - Chicago 121, Boston 118 (2OT) Game 5 - at Boston - Boston 106, Chicago 104 (OT) Game 6 - at Chicago - Chicago 128, Boston 127 (3OT) Chicago's wins have come in single OT, double OT, and then triple OT. I guess the only way they are going to win the series is in 4 OT's on Saturday. No team in the NBA has ever before played 7 overtime periods in an entire post-season, let alone a single series. This is going to go down as one of the all-time great series in NBA history.