Sports Betting Break Even Point
I was talking with a friend about sports betting. We were trying to figure out the break even point when betting sports (the percentage you need to get right in order to gain back the casino's vig). Here's the math:
Let's say that "a" is the number of games you win and "b" is the number of games you lose. To be able to easily compute percentages, let's say that a+b=100. That's one formula. The second is the break even point. Let's say you bet $110 to win $100 all the time (you're betting lines and totals - money lines is another matter). For each game you win, you gain $100 into your bank roll (you get your bet of $110 back and win $100). For each game you lose, you lose $110 from your bank roll. The break even point is when 100a - 110b = 0.
Let's do some math. 100a-110b=0 means that 100a=110b, which means that b=0.90909a
But a+b=100, so b is also equal to 100-a, so 100-a=0.90909a (we're now down to one variable). Adding "a" to both sides gives us 100=0.90909a+a, or 100=1.90909a, or a=100/1.90909, or a=52.380977, which is the break even point for sports betting.
If you can predict the outcome correctly on lines and totals 53% of the time or more, then you can make money in the long run on sports betting. Supposedly, the best sports handicappers out there win somewhere around 53.5% of their bets.
With such thin margins, the way to make money on sports betting is to deal with larger bets and also vary the size of the bets based on confidence level. In the example above, the same amount was bet every time.
Let's say that "a" is the number of games you win and "b" is the number of games you lose. To be able to easily compute percentages, let's say that a+b=100. That's one formula. The second is the break even point. Let's say you bet $110 to win $100 all the time (you're betting lines and totals - money lines is another matter). For each game you win, you gain $100 into your bank roll (you get your bet of $110 back and win $100). For each game you lose, you lose $110 from your bank roll. The break even point is when 100a - 110b = 0.
Let's do some math. 100a-110b=0 means that 100a=110b, which means that b=0.90909a
But a+b=100, so b is also equal to 100-a, so 100-a=0.90909a (we're now down to one variable). Adding "a" to both sides gives us 100=0.90909a+a, or 100=1.90909a, or a=100/1.90909, or a=52.380977, which is the break even point for sports betting.
If you can predict the outcome correctly on lines and totals 53% of the time or more, then you can make money in the long run on sports betting. Supposedly, the best sports handicappers out there win somewhere around 53.5% of their bets.
With such thin margins, the way to make money on sports betting is to deal with larger bets and also vary the size of the bets based on confidence level. In the example above, the same amount was bet every time.
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