US Open Odds

I've never bet on someone to win a golf tournament, and I don't know if I ever could. There are too many variables involved to know who is going to win. But for this weekend's US Open, it looks like Tiger Woods is at +150 and Phil Mickelson has the second-best odds at +800.

Using the money line formula which I blogged about, this means that if you think Tiger has better than a 40% chance of winning, betting on Tiger might be a good idea. For Phil, the break-even point is somewhere around 11% chance of winning.

That's the problem I have with betting on golf champions... I have no idea what kind of percentage to associate with each player. If this exact same US Open were played 5 times, would Tiger win 2 of those? I'd say probably. But would he win 3? Not so sure about that one. If it were played 10 times, would Phil win once? Probably. Would he win twice? Maybe not with all his off-the-course issues going on with his wife fighting breast cancer.

Looks like I'll stay away from betting on the US Open.

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