Picking all lines, totals, money lines in NCAA tournament

This year my friend Tim and I are picking the lines, totals, and money lines for every NCAA tournament game.

Picking the money line is basically picking the winner of every game. But it's not quite that simple. You are involving money with the pick. For example, in the Cincinnati/Ohio St game in the sweet 16, if you picked Ohio St to win, that was -375. Cincinnati to win was +310. For a $30 bet on Ohio St, if Ohio St wins, you win $8. For a $30 bet on Cincinnati, if they win, you win $93. That's a big difference. If you think that Cincinnati has more than a 25% chance of winning, then the bet on Cincinnati is the better choice, even if you think Ohio St has a 70% chance of winning.

On my Money Line picks, when I pick the favorite, I'm 31-14 (69%). When I pick the underdog, I'm 7-12 (37%).

Line bet and total (over/under) bets are more traditional. In line bets, I'm 34-28-2 (55%) - enough to make money in the long run. For totals, I'm 33-31 (52%) - losing money.

My friend Tim is doing slightly better than I am. When picking the money line favorite, he's 34-13 (72%). When picking money line underdogs, he's 5-12 (29%). For line bets, he's 33-29-2 (53%) - barely making money. For totals, he's 36-28 (56%) - well into making money.

There are still 3 games left - the two from the final four and the national championship game. That's 9 more bets, and I'm 3 wins behind Tim right now.

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