Carnage in the 2018 NCAA tournament

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is over, and there was quite a bit of carnage. For the first time ever, a 16 seed beat a 1 seed as UMBC defeated Virginia 74-54. I figured that a 16 seed would win eventually, but I figured it would be a close game and come down to the last possession. UMBC won by 20. Incredible. Virgina was a 20.5 point favorite in that game, which is the second-biggest favorite to lose an NCAA game since the field expanded to 64+ teams in 1985. (Missouri lost as a 21.5 point favorite in 2012).

On Sunday of the round of 32, another 1 seed in Xavier lost. This means that for the first time since 2004 there are 2 top seeds that didn't make the sweet 16. Not only are 2 top seeds out, but Cincinnati and North Carolina (both #2 seeds) also lost in the round of 32. So the top 2 seeds in both the South and West regions are out.

From a betting standpoint, favorites were 16-15-1 ATS in the round of 64, with 8 losses straight-up. That's fairly typical of that first couple days of the tournament. In the round of 32, Saturday the favorites went 5-3 with 1 loss straight up. Sunday in the round of 32 was where the real carnage happened - favorites went 1-7 with 5 losses straight up.

Some of the losses for favorites were pretty staggering:
  • Virginia was a 20.5 point favorite and lost by 20
  • Wichita St was a 13 point favorite and lost by 6 (tied for the 14th largest NCAA tournament upset by betting spread since 1985)
  • Auburn was a 2 point favorite and lost by 31
  • Michigan St was a 10 point favorite and lost by 2
  • North Carolina was a 7 point favorite and lost by 21
Cincinnati had a 22 point lead against Nevada and lost late in the game - the second-largest comeback in an NCAA tournament game.

In the sweet 16, there will be a game between Nevada and Loyola-Chicago. But the major conferences still dominate the final 16 teams, even if it's not all the teams everyone expected. There are 4 teams each from the Big 12 and ACC, and 2 teams each from the SEC and Big 10. The other 4 teams are from the Big East (which is a major basketball conference), the Mountain West, the West Coast Conference, and the Missouri Valley.

The South region has #9 Kansas St vs #5 Kentucky and #11 Loyola-Chicago vs #7 Nevada. So the lowest possible seed in that region that would make the final four is a 5 seed. In the West, the games are #9 Florida St vs #4 Gonzaga and #7 Texas A&M vs #3 Michigan. In the East, the games are #5 West Virginia vs #1 Villanova and #3 Texas Tech vs #2 Purdue, so that region has almost played out exactly as the seeds indicate. In the Midwest, the games are #5 Clemson vs #1 Kansas and #11 Syracuse (who played in one of the Dayton opening round games) vs #2 Duke (both teams from the ACC).

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