Matt Holthe's Fleeting Thoughts

Tonight is the NIT final four - Baylor vs San Diego St at 7PM Eastern and then Notre Dame vs Penn State after. The games are at Madison Square Garden. Baylor is a point to a point-and-a-half favorite, and Notre Dame is 3.5 to 4 point favorites. The total for the Baylor game is 136.5 and for the Notre Dame game it's 138 or 139 depending on the casino. My picks: take San Diego State and the points and Penn State and the points (go for both underdogs). For the totals, go under on the Baylor game and over on the Notre Dame game. Also, Bradley plays Old Dominion tonight for the college insider championship. Bradley is favored by 2 with a total of 127.5 - I have no idea how to bet that one.

I decided I'd post this information for when I needed it next year... In 2008, the first round games that were in the Eastern time zone: Dayton, Miami, Philadelphia, and Greensboro The games started around 12:15 PM, 2:45 PM, 7:10 PM, and 9:40 PM The first round games that were in the Central time zone: Minneapolis and Kansas City The games started around 11:25 AM, 1:55 PM, 6:10 PM, and 8:40 PM The first round games that were in the Mountain time zone: Boise The games started around 10:30 AM, 1:00 PM, 5:25 PM, and 7:55 PM The first round games that were in the Pacific time zone: Portland The games started around 11:30 AM, 2:00 PM, 4:30 PM, and 7:00 PM So, in Las Vegas, Thursday there were 3 games starting around 9:15 AM, 4 starting around 11:45 AM, 1 starting around 2:00 PM, 4 starting around 4:30 PM, and 4 starting around 7:00 PM. Friday there were 4 games starting around 9:15 AM, 4 more starting around 11:45 AM, then a break from around 2:00 PM until around 4:30 PM, 4 games starti...

Illinois has 38 NCAA tournament wins without winning a championship. Oklahoma has 34 (after 2 so far this year). Texas has 33 (after 1 this year). Temple has 31. BYU has appeared in 24 NCAA tournaments without going to the final four. Missouri has appeared in 22, but has a chance to make the final four this year. Boston College has 22 NCAA tournament wins without going to the final four. Missouri has 21 wins (after 3 so far this year). Alabama has 20 wins. Update #1: Oklahoma ended up with 3 wins this year, so they now have 35 wins without winning a championship. Texas only won that 1 game this year. Update #2: Missouri ended up with 3 wins this year and did not make the final four.

5 Big East teams made the sweet 16 (Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, and Syracuse). That's the most a single conference has ever had. But they were all top-3 seeds, so they were kind of expected to make it. Actually, the top 3 seeds in each region all made the sweet 16, which is the first time that has ever happened. For the rest of the sweet 16, there were 3 teams from the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri), 2 from the ACC (North Carolina and Duke), 2 from the Big Ten (Michigan State and Purdue), and 1 each from 4 conferences (Memphis from Conference USA, Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference, Xavier from the Atlantic 10, and Arizona from the Pac 10).

Here's the results of my fake betting Thursday: Large bets - 2-0 (VCU +7 over UCLA, Purdue/UNI under 125.5) Medium bets - 2-2 (Wins: UNI +8.5 over Purdue, Ill/W.Ky over 124.5; Losses: Clem/Mich over 137.5, Minn +4 over Texas) Small bets - 3-1 (Wins: Maryland +1 over Cal, Michigan +5.5 over Clemson, Wash -5.5 over Miss St; Loss: VCU +220 Money Line over UCLA) VCU was sooo close to beating UCLA - that money line would have been a win. Minnesota wasn't even close to Texas, and Mich/Clemson was 121, so that wasn't very close.

Whenever I've gone to Vegas for March Madness, it's always been on the first weekend. What about the second weekend? Advantages of the first weekend: * Lots of games (16 each Thursday and Friday, 8 on Saturday) * Games all day (start at 9AM Pacific, go until 9:30PM or so) Disadvantages of the first weekend: * You have to get up EARLY to get a seat (3:30 or so) * You're in the sports book all day (can be quite tiring) * You don't have much chance to do other gambling Advantages of the second weekend: * Games start around 3PM Pacific - no getting up early * You could spend the morning/early afternoon at the tables/slots before the games start Disadvantages of the second weekend: * Fewer games (4 each Thursday and Friday, 2 on Saturday) * Fewer betting options (because there are fewer games) I think the excitement level would be about the same each weekend, although I don't know for sure. Might be something to consider for future trips.

The play-in game (or "opening round game") is a stupid idea. I personally like the idea of 4 play-in games to determine #12 or #13 seeds and not 1 to determine a #16 seed. My idea: Teams from mid-major conferences who win the regular season (get the #1 seed in the conference tournament) but don't win the conference tournament get first dibs for inclusion in the play-in games. They are only eligible if the committee deems them to be "bubble-worthy" teams. This year, that would have included Davidson. If that pool makes up 8 teams, great. If not, then additional bubble teams are included. These should be from mid-majors as well, but don't have to be. Penn State might have been in this list, or San Diego State. Those teams play on Tuesday night and feed into #12 or #13 seeds (depending on how the brackets work out - basically the "last four in" positions). They play at the same site as who they are going to face Thursday or Friday in the 12/5 or 13/4 ...

I'm not going to Vegas this year, but if I was, here would be the bets I would make. I'll group these into "large", "medium", and "small" - the people who know me can make guesses at the actual amounts for each. Large Bets VCU +7 over UCLA Purdue/Northern Iowa under 125.5 Siena +3 over Ohio State Wake Forest/Cleveland State over 137.5 Medium Bets Northern Iowa +8.5 over Purdue Utah State +4.5 over Marquette Illinois/Western Kentucky over 124.5 Clemson/Michigan over 137.5 Boston College +2 over USC Minnesota +4 over Texas Small Bets VCU +220 (money line) over UCLA Utah +1 over Arizona Maryland +1 over California North Dakota St +10 over Kansas North Dakota St +450 (money line) over Kansas Michigan +5.5 over Clemson Washington -5.5 over Mississippi State Arizona State -4.5 over Temple

There used to be just two NCAA post-season tournaments - the NCAA and the NIT. Last year, the College Basketball Invitational (CBI) was introduced by the Gazelle Group. This year a fourth post-season tournament was added: The College Insider Postseason Tournament (CIT). There are 16 teams, just like the CBI. With the CBI, teams are grouped into regions (4 regions of 4 teams each). The games are played on the home courts of the higher seeds (so the 2nd round location isn't known until both first round games are complete). After the 2nd round, teams are re-seeded and games are played on the home courts of the higher seeds. The final round is a best of three with the higher seed getting the first and (if necessary) third game. For the CIT, it looks like it is just a straight tournament but teams are re-seeded after each round. The one nice thing about the CIT is that they prioritize their selection based on mid-major conferences. According to their web site, "Teams whose conferen...

The opening lines for the first round of the NCAA tournament have been posted. Here are some interesting lines: Higher seeded teams that are underdogs: (5) Utah is +1 vs (12) Arizona (8) Oklahoma St is +2 vs (9) Tennessee (7) Boston College is +2 vs (10) USC Teams where the lines are a lot closer than the seeds would indicate: (4) Washington is -5 vs (13) Mississippi St (7) California is -1 vs (10) Maryland (5) Illinois is -4 vs (12) Western Kentucky (5) Florida St is -3 vs (12) Wisconsin Biggest spreads: (1) North Carolina -27 vs (16) Radford (2) Duke -22 vs (15) Binghamton (1) Pittsburgh -21 vs (16) East Tennessee St (1) Connecticut -20.5 vs (16) Chattanooga (2) Memphis -19.5 vs (15) Cal St Northridge (2) Michigan St -17 vs (15) Robert Morris (3) Villanova -17 vs (14) American (2) Oklahoma -17 vs (15) Morgan St Other Thursday games: (8) BYU -2 vs (9) Texas A&M (5) Purdue -8.5 vs (12) Northern Iowa (6) UCLA -7 vs (11) VCU (7) Texas -4 vs (10) Minnesota (8) LSU -2.5 vs (9) Butler (...

Looks like the times have been announced for the games this Thursday and Friday. Here's the lineup: NOTE: all times Eastern, * = approximate Thursday, March 19 12:20 PM - Butler vs LSU from Greensboro 12:25 PM - Cal St Northridge vs Memphis from Kansas City 12:30 PM - Texas A&M vs BYU from Philadelphia 2:30 PM - Northern Iowa vs Purdue from Portland *2:50 PM - Radford vs North Carolina from Greensboro *2:55 PM - Maryland vs California from Kansas City *3:00 PM - Chattanooga vs Connecticut from Philadelphia *5:00 PM - Mississippi St vs Washington from Portland 7:10 PM - Michigan vs Clemson from Kansas City 7:10 PM - Minnesota vs Texas from Greensboro 7:20 PM - American vs Villanova from Philadelphia 7:25 PM - Akron vs Gonzaga from Portland *9:40 PM - Morgan St vs Oklahoma from Kansas City *9:40 PM - Binghamton vs Duke from Greensboro *9:50 PM - VCU vs UCLA from Philadelphia *9:55 PM - Western Kentucky vs Illinois from Portland Friday, March 20 12:15 PM - Stephen F Austin vs Syra...

I was thinking of how hard it would be for a college coach to get to 1000 wins. For someone starting out today, here's how I think it would be possible: First, you would have to start out with a point guard who is good enough to play, but not good enough to go pro, and is interested in coaching. Kind of like Chester Frazier. Next, after that player graduates, he becomes an assistant coach with a high profile team (meaning, a team that's on TV a lot, like Duke). That will give him a lot of exposure in a short amount of time. After 2 or 3 years as an assistant, someone at a low-major college gives him a chance. Like maybe in the Southern Conference or the MAAC or the Sun Belt. He's a coach at age 25 or so. Next, he begins to dominate that league and build up a lot of wins. You could get 14 or so conference wins per year and some out of conference, and the conference tournament. He doesn't have to win the league every year, but has to be in contention. This would amount to...

Last week I reviewed the Sporting News Top 25 picks. Here are some surprises from the major conference predictions. Mountain West Conference - UNLV was predicted to win and they ended up 5th. Pac-10 Conference - Washington was picked 4th and won outright. USC was picked 2nd and finished tied for 5th. Big 12 Conference - Texas was picked to win and finished in a four-way tie for 4th. Kansas was picked 4th and won outright. Baylor was picked 3rd and finished 9th. Big Ten Conference - Illinois was picked 7th and finished tied for 2nd. Atlantic 10 Conference - Charlotte was picked 3rd and finished 12th. SEC East - South Carolina was picked last (6th) and tied for first. West Coast Conference - it went almost as predicted. Predicted finish: Gonzaga, St Mary's, San Diego, Portland, Santa Clara, Pepperdine, San Fran, Loyola Marymount. Actual finish: Gonzaga, St Mary's, Portland, Santa Clara, San Diego, Pepperdine, San Fran, Loyola. Western Athletic Conference - Idaho was picked last (...

You see all the upsets yesterday? Several among ranked teams and (even more surprising to me) several bubble teams losing to lesser teams. Some of the upsets: #5 Oklahoma loses to #12 Missouri #9 Kansas loses to unranked (and previously 2-12 in conference) Texas Tech #11 LSU loses at home to unranked Vanderbilt #20 Purdue loses at home to unranked Northwestern Bubble team Kentucky loses at home to previously 2-12 in conference Georgia Bubble team Florida loses to Mississippi State Bubble team Boston College lost to North Carolina State Bubble team Miami (FL) lost to previously 1-13 in conference Georgia Tech About the only bubble team who might have helped themselves yesterday was Minnesota who beat Wisconsin.

Making it to the college basketball final four takes talent and some luck in terms of bracket matchups and even (sometimes) some game luck. Here are the teams I think might be able to make it to Detroit, and the 1 big flaw each team has which could keep them out. The teams are listed alphabetically, so I don't give away my "favorites" at this time. Connecticut - lost their 2nd best player and team leader Duke - relies heavily on outside shooting and sometimes forgets to play defense Kansas - extremely young team and is playing above their level right now (advanced scouting in the NCAA tournament exposes stuff like that) Louisville - shoots free throws poorly, sometimes plays down to the level of their competition, and sometimes has long lapses during a game where they play down to the level of the competition LSU - is playing above their skill level with a first year (at this team) coach Memphis - is relying on a freshman point guard leader who, although good, isn't ...

At the start of the college basketball year, I buy one or two "preview" magazines. This year, I bought one from the Sporting News. It's interesting to go back towards the end of the year and see how close or far off they were. Today I'll take a look at surprises (good or bad) in the top 25. Tomorrow and the next day I'll take a look at surprises in predicted finishes in the "big 6" conferences and some of the other conferences. Some surprises in the top 25 rankings: Texas was pre-season #6... they are currently not ranked. USC was pre-season #11... they didn't even get a single vote in either poll this week and are widely considered to be on the outside looking in for NCAA tournament consideration. Notre Dame was pre-season #12... they also didn't get a single vote, but at least they have some hope of making the NCAA tournament. Miami was pre-season #14... they didn't get a single vote but they do have a slight chance of making the tournament...

Illinois lost to Michigan State on Sunday at home. It was pretty evident that Michigan State is a better team than Illinois, but I thought the Illini had it when they tied it up at 58. Oh, well. Now we're guaranteed either 2nd or 3rd place in the Big Ten, which means we'll have to play either Purdue or Michigan State in the semi-finals of the Big Ten tournament (assuming both win their opening game).