Matt Holthe's Fleeting Thoughts

It took until the end of February, but I finally got sick this winter. And it's been saving everything up. I thought at first it was a mild case of the flu - I got my vaccine in October, but it wouldn't be unusual for someone to still get the flu, just not as bad. I had chills Sunday night. I stayed home from work Monday. Tuesday I felt a little better, but worked from home to not spread any germs around. Wednesday (yesterday) I did a regular full day of work in the office, but I was coughing a decent amount. Now, today, I'm coughing and blowing my nose and I feel pretty run down. I'm hoping I can get over this soon.

For the past few years, including this year, we have made a trip up to Wisconsin Dells just after the calendar turns to the new year. School is out still and the hotel room rates drop significantly right after January 1st, so it's a great time to go. We had a fun time like always. For the past few years we've gone to Great Wolf Lodge. I'm wondering if we're starting to get a little bit of "been there, done that" with that hotel, though. The indoor pools are great. There's a central entrance which means you can easily see how crowded everything is and make the decision on whether to go to the pools or do something else. Thursday we went in the morning, then kept an eye out until the crowds went down in the late afternoon before returning. There's also MagiQuest and a small arcade, but that's really about it at Great Wolf. I'm thinking that (assuming we do this again in 2020), we might choose a different location. Unfortunately, there are onl...

I keep track of sports betting and focus more on NCAA Men's Basketball than any other sport. So far, in 2018, here's the trends: Favorites playing at home: Favorites are 293-285-19 ATS (50.7%) Favorites playing on the road: Favorites are 64-70-0 ATS (47.8%) Favorites in neutral court games: Favorites are 123-94-4 ATS (56.6%) In "pick 'em" games, the home team has won 4 times and the road team has won 4 times. For totals, the "over" is 466-484-16 (49.1%) What does all this mean? That Vegas continues to be good at what they do - you can't make any predictions based on generalization from the season. I doubt I'll have time to tweak my ranking system and the predictor that goes along with it. In the past I've been about 55% accurate, which isn't anywhere near good enough to take the predictor into the real world. I'd like to get up to 60% or even 65% before I start betting actual money using the system. That means I have a lot ...

After last year's cruise and this year's cruise, my daughter has added some states and countries to her list. For states, I differentiate those that we've visited (set foot) and those that we've spent the night in. For countries, I don't differentiate since the cruise makes stops to different countries. Anyway, here's her list of states where she has spent the night: California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin Here are the additional states where she has set foot, but not spent the night: Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Tennessee That's 18 out of 50 states that she's been to. I've been to 44 out of 50. Additionally, she's been to the following countries: Bahamas, Jamaica, Grand Cayman (Cayman Islands), Tortola (British Virgin Islands), Virgin Gorda (British Virgin Islands), St Thomas (US Virgin Islands)

This past week, over Thanksgiving, my family and I went on a Disney cruise. We went to Tortola (British Virgin Islands), St Thomas (US Virgin Islands), and Castaway Cay (Disney's private island in the Bahamas). It was a great trip. It rained a little bit one of the days we were hanging out on deck. When we were coming in to Castaway Cay it was raining and we thought the day was going to be washed out, but the rain stopped and the weather was beautiful that day. This is the overall map of the cruise. We started out in Port Canaveral (due east of Orlando on the Atlantic Ocean), then went to Tortola (just east of St Thomas - see the 2nd map), then to St Thomas, then to Castaway Cay (the flag to the east of Miami), and back to Port Canaveral. Here is a map of Tortola and St Thomas to indicate how close these islands are to each other. On our excursion from Tortola, we went to the Baths on the island of Virgin Gorda. The entire cruise was great. It's a pretty expensive ...

Although I'm not as into college basketball has I was in my younger days - watching at least 1 game every single night - I still love college basketball. The season started this past Tuesday. One game in, it looks like Duke is the team to beat. They crushed Kentucky, who many people picked to be in the Final Four. Obviously, it's still way early - Kentucky maybe hasn't come together yet and Duke is maybe going to peak early. I've always looked at sports, college basketball in particular, in a little different light - I look at the gambling aspect. I have, in the past, made many trips to Las Vegas during the NCAA tournament to watch and bet on games. The last few years, it has been too expensive to fly out there. I made it in March of 2017, but not this past year and won't come March of 2019. However, now that sports betting is becoming more wide spread nationally, I might not have to go all the way to Vegas in March. As of right now, Tunica, MS, has sports betting...

The Colorado Rockies were swept by Milwaukee this year in the National League Division Series. They continue their strange playoff run where no series is close. They have played two single-game wild card playoff games - 2017 and 2018. Last year they lost to Arizona. This year they beat Chicago. Outside of those winner-take-all single-game playoff games, which are set up to be just a single game, the Rockies series have all been relatively easy for one of the teams. Here are the Rockies post-season playoff history: Year Opponent Result 1995 Atlanta Lost 3 games to 1 2007 Philadelphia Won 3 games to 0 2007 Arizona Won 4 games to 0 2007 Boston Lost 4 games to 0 2009 Philadelphia Lost 3 games to 1 2017 Arizona Lost 1 game to 0 2018 Chicago Won 1 game to 0 2018 Milwaukee Lost 3 games to 0 The closest series is 3-1 (twice), otherwise everything has been a sweep. Very strange playoff history.

Yesterday was an incredibly rare event in baseball. There were two "game 163" games. When two teams tie for a division title, they play 1 extra game to decide the division winner. In this case, both the NL Central (Cubs and Brewers) and NL West (Dodgers and Rockies) tied. They have the extra games every once in a while, but there have never been two games in one season. I had rooting interest in both games. I grew up a Cubs fan, and lived out in Colorado for 10 years, so my second team is the Rockies. Unfortunately, both the Cubs and the Rockies lost yesterday. On the plus side, the loser of both of those games ended up being the two wild card teams in the National League. So they are both actually still in the playoffs. But, on the negative side, they play each other in a single game wild card game to see who advances in the playoffs. Tonight I'll be watching the wild card game, but it will be difficult. The Cubs are my team, but the Rockies haven't made it this fa...

It's only September. Today the high temperature was just over 90. But we're done camping for the year. Last weekend was our last trip. We have a trip scheduled in early October, but it would end up being more trouble than its worth to bring the camper on that trip. And we have plans the rest of the weekends in October and even plans in November already. So another camping trip this year is not going to be possible. We had a decent year for camping. We didn't take the camper out for a long trip like I had wanted, but we did several weekend trips. The longer the trip, the better, as far as I'm concerned. There is a lot of work prior to hitting the road (loading things up, packing, etc), a decent amount of work unloading and setting up when you get there, and a ton of work when you leave and return home. So the longer that last day can be pushed out, the better. We're thinking about an extended trip next year, and hopefully we can do more than 1 extended trip to ma...

Last Saturday I took my daughter to her first football game. She's 9 years old. She still has a lot to learn about football. And sitting through a 3+ hour game in heat was too much to expect. We only lasted the first half. Problem was, Illinois (the team we were rooting for) was down 17-3 at halftime. In the second half (which we missed), Illinois made a comeback and ended up winning 31-24. It would have been nice to see the second half of the game. Maybe once she gets a little older.

I saw someone post about starting their blog 15 years ago. It got me thinking. I started this blog in February of 2009 before my daughter was born. But that wasn't my first steps into writing stuff online. Prior to this blog, I created a blog in 2006 specifically for March Madness in Las Vegas trips. (Now, there's a Facebook group dedicated to that and that blog is quite out of date). And going back even further, I started my hints and tips web site in 1999. I don't publish new tips very often in there, but every once in a while (once or twice a year) I'll add something to it. And it keeps getting reads and most of the information is still relevant. (The Notes R4 and R5 Easter eggs are probably not so relevant any more....) Somewhere around the same time that I started my hints and tips web site is when I started writing articles for trade magazines and speaking at conferences. Those things are long since gone, although I occasionally do still speak at a conference....

Last weekend we went camping for the third time this year. It was a 2 night trip again. Taking out the camper for a single night would be so not worth it. It's even a lot of work for 2 nights, but that's better. We went to the same place we did for the first trip this year. But on this trip it rained a bit - Saturday morning is stormed, and then Saturday night it rained. Raining on a camping trip is never fun, but at least with a camper (compared to a tent), it's manageable. We just stayed inside and played games. There is enough room for the 3 of us, plus we had my brother and his wife over for a while. And we were just fine in the rain for Saturday evening. We also had my daughter bring a friend for the first night. That actually went all right - better than I expected. We didn't get a lot of sleep Friday night (which was anticipated), but they played and swam together and rode their bikes around the campground and had a good time. Even though summer is starting...

Starting July 1st, Google is going to "punish" companies/web sites that aren't using SSL for traffic. So, even though I have a site (www.breakingpar.com) that simply gives information and doesn't ask for any log in or anything, I'm somewhat required to start using SSL. Luckily, there are nice people on the internet that allow you to get SSL certificates for free instead of paying the huge fees for something I really don't need. It's a little bit of a pain to set up and maintain (they expire every 60 days), but that's way better than paying a bunch of money every couple of years. Hopefully those certificates remain free in the future. After a couple of pain points, including realizing that I actually have 2 firewalls (I opened up port 443 on my router, but Windows Firewall was blocking it), I have now set up SSL on my web site. And I configured reminders for every 7 weeks (49 days) to renew those certificates. I have redirected all traffic on my web...

Tiger Woods missed the cut at the US Open this past weekend. It was his 72nd major as a professional. In the past there was the foregone conclusion that Tiger would break Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 professional major victories, so I started keeping track of where each player was at the same number of majors played. Here's the comparison through 72 majors: Tiger: 14 wins, 6 2nd places, 24 total top 3's (14+6+4 others), 31 total top 5's, and 38 total top 10's. Jack: 15 wins, 15 2nd places, 39 total top 3's, 46 total top 5's, and 55 total top 10's. That's the thing that always amazed me about Jack - even when he didn't win, he was up there. He had as many top 3 finishes in majors as Tiger has top 10 finishes (1 more, in fact) through the same number of events. Although Tiger is only 1 behind the pace on wins, he's going to have some catching up to do. In majors 73 through 83 for Jack (1980 Masters through 1982 British Open), Jack had two...

For Memorial Day weekend, we took the camper out for a couple nights to Double J campground in Springfield, IL. The campground was pretty decent. The sites were somewhat close together, although from what I know it wasn't as close as other places. There was a swimming pool, a mini golf course (that was all asphalt - not all that impressive), a playground, an area that had foosball, air hockey, and ping pong, and other kids activities. Overall, it was a pretty nice place. A little higher price than other places I've looked at ($50 per night). Our daughter did discover one of the joys of camping - she made a friend. The friend was a couple years older than our daughter, but they really hit it off and did a ton of stuff together - playing at the playground, swimming, and so on.

Last weekend was our first camping trip of 2018. It was the second time out with the new travel trailer we bought towards the end of the summer in 2017. I had to do all the de-winterizing and sanitizing of the water system prior to the trip. The camper takes a lot of time, but it's also a lot of fun to go camping. I have seen people say that owning a camper is a money pit, and they are 100% true. I keep finding things that I "need" for the camper. As an example, a step stool for my wife and daughter. We have 3 short step stools at home, but it's a pain to remember to pack those for every trip. So I bought one to keep in the camper. There are tons of examples like this - things that you just keep in the camper and so you have to buy special to have one to keep in the camper. And during the trip last week, I was realizing just how little storage space we have in the camper. We knew it was going to be tight when we bought it, but just spending more time in there it b...

A couple nights ago Villanova beat Michigan for their second championship in 3 years. They were dominating this tournament - winning margins were 26, 23, 12, 12, 16, and 17. The Big Ten yet again failed to win a championship. Since 2000 when Michigan State won, the Big Ten conference has now lost the national championship game 7 times and has 6 other Final Four appearances. (Wisconsin also appeared in the year 2000, so 7 including that year). Starting with the year 2000, here are all the conferences that have appeared in a final four: Conference National Championships Runner-Ups Lost in Semifinals Total Final Four Appearances ACC 7 2 5 14 American 1 0 0 1 Big 12 1 2 6 9 Big East 6 (*) 0 6 (*) 12 Big Ten 1 7 7 15 Colonial 0 0 2 2 C-USA 0 1 (*) 2 3 Horizon 0 2 0 2 MVC 0 0 2 2 Pac-10/Pac-12 0 2 3 5 SEC 3 2 5 10 West Coast 0 1 0 1 (*) = Memphis from 2008 had to vacate their national championship appearance, and Louisville from the Big East had to vacate their 2012 f...

I thought I'd post the future NCAA tournament dates so I have them when I need them. Year Championship/Final Four Dates Championship/Final Four Location Sweet 16/Elite 8 Dates Sweet 16/Elite 8 Locations Rounds of 16/32 Dates Rounds of 16/32 Locations 2019 April 6,8 Minneapolis, MN March 28,29,30,31 Louisville, KY Anaheim, CA Washington, D.C. Kansas City, MO March 21,22,23,24 Salt Lake City, UT Des Moines, IA Jacksonville, FL Tulsa, OK Columbus, OH Columbia, SC Seattle, WA 2020 April 4,6 Atlanta, GA March 26,27,28,29 Indianapolis, IN Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX New York, NY March 19,20,21,22 Albany, NY Spokane, WA St. Louis, MO Tampa, FL Greensboro, NC Omaha, NE Sacramento, CA Cleveland, OH 2021 April 3,5 Indianapolis, IN March 25,26,27,28 Minneapolis, MN Denver, CO Memphis, TN Brooklyn, NY March 18,19,20,21 Providence, RI Boise, ID Detroit, MI Dallas, TX Wichita, KS Lexington, KY Raleigh, NC San Jose, CA 2022 Ap...

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is over, and there was quite a bit of carnage. For the first time ever, a 16 seed beat a 1 seed as UMBC defeated Virginia 74-54. I figured that a 16 seed would win eventually, but I figured it would be a close game and come down to the last possession. UMBC won by 20. Incredible. Virgina was a 20.5 point favorite in that game, which is the second-biggest favorite to lose an NCAA game since the field expanded to 64+ teams in 1985. (Missouri lost as a 21.5 point favorite in 2012). On Sunday of the round of 32, another 1 seed in Xavier lost. This means that for the first time since 2004 there are 2 top seeds that didn't make the sweet 16. Not only are 2 top seeds out, but Cincinnati and North Carolina (both #2 seeds) also lost in the round of 32. So the top 2 seeds in both the South and West regions are out. From a betting standpoint, favorites were 16-15-1 ATS in the round of 64, with 8 losses straight-up. That's fairly typical of that...

This past weekend I went to see (almost all of) the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament in St Louis. We came in on Thursday for two games and saw a very impressive 22 point, 19 rebound performance by Alize Johnson of Missouri State. Friday was a long day with 4 games, but they were all close games. The first two games were decided by 4 points and 2 points, with the second one being decided on a basket with 1.2 seconds to go in the game. The two evening games were decided by 7 points and 4 points. Saturday's semifinal games were decided by 8 points each, but the second game went to overtime before Illinois State pulled away from Southern Illinois. I wasn't able to stay for the championship game on Sunday, but I didn't miss much as Loyola Chicago beat Illinois State by 16 points. All in all, it was a fun weekend and really interesting to see a lot of tournament games in a short amount of time.